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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD5

Ferencváros

FER

NK Celje

NKC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Ferencváros65%
Draw21%
NK Celje15%

Expected goals

2.11 – 0.95

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–010.5%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 1–19.4%
  • 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

56%Possession56%
42%Territory38%
27%From set plays23%
0.17Chance quality0.12
4.0%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Ferencváros, 2 for NK Celje. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.