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Europa League · League phase MD5

Marseille

OM

Levski Sofia

LES

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Marseille42%
Draw26%
Levski Sofia32%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.34

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.7%
  • 109.1%
  • 218.9%
  • 017.7%
  • 127.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession50%
29%Territory32%
5%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.06
2.8%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Marseille, 1 for Levski Sofia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Levski Sofia

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.