Europa League · League phase MD8
Marseille
OM
Anderlecht
AND
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille40%
Draw26%
Anderlecht33%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.39
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession58%
30%Territory34%
12%From set plays44%
0.07Chance quality0.13
3.2%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Marseille, 1 for Anderlecht. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.