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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD4

Real Sociedad

RSO

Lyon

OL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Sociedad13%
Draw20%
Lyon67%

Expected goals

0.89 – 2.14

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–211.1%
  • 0–110.9%
  • 1–29.9%
  • 1–19.1%
  • 0–37.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

62%Possession42%
38%Territory23%
57%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.09
3.9%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Real Sociedad, 1 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.