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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD6

AZ Alkmaar

AZA

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

AZ Alkmaar56%
Draw26%
Sturm Graz18%

Expected goals

1.59 – 0.80

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

45%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–015.1%
  • 1–111.6%
  • 2–011.3%
  • 0–010.1%
  • 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

60%Possession33%
43%Territory34%
21%From set plays17%
0.14Chance quality0.10
4.2%Directness6.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AZ Alkmaar, 2 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.