Europa League · League phase MD7
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Dinamo Zagreb
DIN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar40%
Draw27%
Dinamo Zagreb33%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.33
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
60%Possession52%
43%Territory35%
21%From set plays3%
0.14Chance quality0.16
4.2%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AZ Alkmaar, 2 for Dinamo Zagreb. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.