Europa League · League phase MD4
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Juventus
JUV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar44%
Draw26%
Juventus30%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.31
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–27.2%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
60%Possession54%
43%Territory51%
21%From set plays18%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AZ Alkmaar, 2 for Juventus. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.