Skip to content

Europa League · League phase MD4

AZ Alkmaar

AZA

Juventus

JUV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

AZ Alkmaar34%
Draw26%
Juventus40%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.60

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.2%
  • 128.7%
  • 018.0%
  • 217.8%
  • 107.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

55%Possession48%
42%Territory27%
8%From set plays
0.12Chance quality0.38
1.8%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for AZ Alkmaar, 1 for Juventus. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.