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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD6

Lyon

OL

Union St.Gilloise

UNI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lyon65%
Draw21%
Union St.Gilloise15%

Expected goals

2.11 – 0.94

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.6%
  • 2–010.6%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–19.4%
  • 3–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

54%Possession48%
30%Territory49%
22%From set plays34%
0.15Chance quality0.10
5.2%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lyon, 2 for Union St.Gilloise. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.