Europa League · League phase MD8
Lyon
OL
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon75%
Draw16%
Leverkusen9%
Expected goals
2.47 – 0.79
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.9%
- 1–010.1%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession56%
23%Territory44%
31%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.2%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Lyon, 1 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.