Europa League · League phase MD8
Lyon
OL
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon57%
Draw22%
Leverkusen20%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.15
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.5%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
54%Possession62%
30%Territory49%
22%From set plays9%
0.15Chance quality0.17
5.2%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lyon, 2 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.