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Europa League · League phase MD8

Lyon

OL

Bayer Leverkusen

LEV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lyon75%
Draw16%
Leverkusen9%

Expected goals

2.47 – 0.79

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-1.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 2011.9%
  • 1010.1%
  • 309.5%
  • 219.2%
  • 317.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

42%Possession56%
23%Territory44%
31%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.2%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Lyon, 1 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.