Europa League · League phase MD8
Milan
MIL
Ararat Armenia
ARA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan52%
Draw25%
Ararat Armenia24%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.16
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession49%
27%Territory37%
41%From set plays37%
0.13Chance quality0.05
7.2%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Milan, 2 for Ararat Armenia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Ararat Armenia
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.