Europa League · League phase MD8
Milan
MIL
Ararat Armenia
ARA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan45%
Draw26%
Ararat Armenia30%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.31
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
60%Possession41%
54%Territory23%
38%From set plays55%
0.06Chance quality0.15
2.3%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Milan, 1 for Ararat Armenia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Milan
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Ararat Armenia
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.