Europa League · League phase MD6
Milan
MIL
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan38%
Draw26%
Sunderland36%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.45
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession59%
27%Territory57%
41%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.10
7.2%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Milan, 2 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.