Europa League · League phase MD4
Milan
MIL
Ferencváros
FER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan28%
Draw25%
Ferencváros47%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.69
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession56%
27%Territory42%
41%From set plays27%
0.13Chance quality0.17
7.2%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Milan, 2 for Ferencváros. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.