Europa League · League phase MD4
Milan
MIL
Ferencváros
FER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan27%
Draw26%
Ferencváros47%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.59
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
60%Possession37%
54%Territory42%
38%From set plays22%
0.06Chance quality0.07
2.3%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Milan, 1 for Ferencváros. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Milan
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.