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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Europa League · League phase MD8

Juventus

JUV

Real Sociedad

RSO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Juventus46%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad29%

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.36

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–08.4%
  • 1–27.0%
  • 2–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

54%Possession56%
51%Territory40%
18%From set plays3%
0.12Chance quality0.14
4.8%Directness3.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Juventus, 2 for Real Sociedad. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.