Europa League · League phase MD4
Benfica
BEN
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benfica47%
Draw26%
Lech Poznań27%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.21
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
40%Possession47%
41%Territory44%
8%From set plays9%
0.06Chance quality0.07
10.2%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Benfica, 1 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
Lech Poznań
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.