Europa League · League phase MD4
Benfica
BEN
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benfica67%
Draw19%
Lech Poznań15%
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.12
Over 2.5
68%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession41%
53%Territory21%
15%From set plays9%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Benfica, 2 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
Lech Poznań
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.