Europa League · League phase MD2
Benfica
BEN
Celtic
CET
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benfica34%
Draw25%
Celtic41%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.69
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
40%Possession63%
41%Territory37%
8%From set plays28%
0.06Chance quality0.07
10.2%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Benfica, 1 for Celtic. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.