Europa League · League phase MD8
Benfica
BEN
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benfica46%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar28%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.22
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
40%Possession55%
41%Territory42%
8%From set plays8%
0.06Chance quality0.12
10.2%Directness1.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Benfica, 1 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
AZ Alkmaar
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.