Europa League · League phase MD8
Benfica
BEN
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benfica47%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar28%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.32
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession60%
53%Territory43%
15%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.14
4.3%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Benfica, 2 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Benfica
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.