Europa League · League phase MD7
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Salzburg
SAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen66%
Draw18%
Salzburg16%
Expected goals
2.52 – 1.22
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–17.4%
- 1–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
62%Possession51%
49%Territory38%
9%From set plays11%
0.17Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Leverkusen, 2 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.