Europa League · League phase MD7
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Salzburg
SAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen44%
Draw24%
Salzburg32%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.50
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
56%Possession50%
44%Territory31%
12%From set plays6%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.0%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Leverkusen, 1 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Salzburg
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.