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Europa League · League phase MD7

Bayer Leverkusen

LEV

Salzburg

SAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Leverkusen44%
Draw24%
Salzburg32%

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.50

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.4%
  • 218.9%
  • 127.4%
  • 107.2%
  • 226.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

56%Possession50%
44%Territory31%
12%From set plays6%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.0%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Leverkusen, 1 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.