Europa League · League phase MD4
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen49%
Draw25%
Marseille26%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.23
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
56%Possession46%
44%Territory30%
12%From set plays12%
0.14Chance quality0.07
4.0%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Leverkusen, 1 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 17 of 18 matches, not the full season.