Europa League · League phase MD4
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen63%
Draw21%
Marseille16%
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.96
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.6%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
62%Possession64%
49%Territory41%
9%From set plays8%
0.17Chance quality0.07
4.3%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Leverkusen, 2 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Marseille
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 54 matches, not the full season.