Champions League · League phase MD4
Lens
RCL
Como
COM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens42%
Draw26%
Como32%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.35
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
63%Possession50%
48%Territory36%
36%From set plays6%
0.07Chance quality0.21
3.6%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Lens, 1 for Como. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.