Champions League · League phase MD7
Lens
RCL
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens20%
Draw26%
Man City54%
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.64
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
63%Possession64%
48%Territory51%
36%From set plays12%
0.07Chance quality0.12
3.6%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Lens, 1 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Man City
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.