Champions League · League phase MD7
Lens
RCL
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens20%
Draw26%
Man City54%
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.67
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
50%Possession59%
40%Territory49%
33%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.13
3.7%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lens, 2 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.