Champions League · League phase MD7
Como
COM
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Como23%
Draw24%
PSG53%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.89
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–36.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
54%Possession47%
36%Territory35%
2%From set plays3%
0.15Chance quality0.14
2.3%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Como, 2 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.