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Champions League · League phase MD7

Como

COM

Paris Saint-Germain

PSG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Como19%
Draw22%
PSG60%

Expected goals

1.14 – 2.10

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 129.9%
  • 119.4%
  • 018.8%
  • 028.6%
  • 136.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

50%Possession72%
36%Territory61%
6%From set plays13%
0.21Chance quality0.13
3.3%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Como, 1 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.