Champions League · League phase MD7
AEK Athens
AEK
Roma
ROM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AEK Athens35%
Draw28%
Roma36%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.32
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession64%
27%Territory53%
10%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AEK Athens, 2 for Roma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.