Champions League · League phase MD4
AEK Athens
AEK
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AEK Athens23%
Draw23%
Real Madrid54%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.96
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–36.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
49%Possession36%
38%Territory39%
39%From set plays3%
0.10Chance quality0.18
6.7%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for AEK Athens, 1 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
AEK Athens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.