Champions League · League phase MD4
AEK Athens
AEK
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AEK Athens20%
Draw23%
Real Madrid57%
Expected goals
1.14 – 2.00
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession55%
27%Territory40%
10%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.4%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for AEK Athens, 2 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.