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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD6

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Lille

LIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart46%
Draw26%
Lille28%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.21

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–010.2%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.4%
  • 2–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

62%Possession45%
49%Territory30%
18%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.14
3.8%Directness2.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.