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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD6

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Lille

LIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart49%
Draw27%
Lille24%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.05

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 1–012.0%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

59%Possession49%
51%Territory25%
36%From set plays6%
0.11Chance quality0.11
3.8%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.