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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD3

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Atlético Madrid

ATM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart32%
Draw26%
Atlético Madrid42%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.60

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 2–17.6%
  • 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

62%Possession55%
49%Territory32%
18%From set plays11%
0.13Chance quality0.10
3.8%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for VfB Stuttgart, 1 for Atlético Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.