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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD4

Galatasaray

GAL

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Galatasaray39%
Draw29%
VfB Stuttgart32%

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.19

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 1–011.1%
  • 0–19.8%
  • 0–09.4%
  • 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

37%Possession59%
28%Territory51%
15%From set plays36%
0.11Chance quality0.11
7.0%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Galatasaray, 2 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.