Champions League · League phase MD5
Shakhtar Donetsk
SHK
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shakhtar Donetsk44%
Draw28%
Fenerbahçe28%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.09
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession52%
45%Territory41%
40%From set plays15%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.9%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 2 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fenerbahçe
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.