Champions League · League phase MD4
Shakhtar Donetsk
SHK
Sporting CP
SCP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shakhtar Donetsk23%
Draw29%
Sporting CP48%
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.40
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.9%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–29.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession53%
45%Territory39%
40%From set plays2%
0.08Chance quality0.18
4.9%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 2 for Sporting CP. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.