Champions League · League phase MD8
Shakhtar Donetsk
SHK
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shakhtar Donetsk22%
Draw23%
Real Madrid55%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.97
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–36.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
46%Possession36%
25%Territory39%
8%From set plays3%
0.08Chance quality0.18
5.7%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Shakhtar Donetsk
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.