Champions League · League phase MD7
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Villarreal
VIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe40%
Draw29%
Villarreal31%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.16
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
52%Possession50%
41%Territory43%
15%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.0%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Fenerbahçe, 2 for Villarreal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fenerbahçe
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.