Champions League · League phase MD7
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Villarreal
VIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe44%
Draw28%
Villarreal27%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.06
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–09.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession48%
25%Territory28%
4%From set plays26%
0.14Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Fenerbahçe, 1 for Villarreal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.