Champions League · League phase MD2
Villarreal
VIL
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Villarreal38%
Draw30%
Napoli32%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.09
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–011.3%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession42%
28%Territory28%
26%From set plays0%
0.11Chance quality0.04
5.0%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Villarreal, 1 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Napoli
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.