Champions League · League phase MD8
Villarreal
VIL
Manchester United
MUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Villarreal35%
Draw29%
Man United37%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.30
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession58%
28%Territory47%
26%From set plays14%
0.11Chance quality0.17
5.0%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Villarreal, 1 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.