Champions League · League phase MD4
Villarreal
VIL
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Villarreal19%
Draw23%
PSG58%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.92
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–110.6%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
50%Possession47%
43%Territory35%
9%From set plays3%
0.10Chance quality0.14
3.2%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Villarreal, 2 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.