Champions League · League phase MD4
Villarreal
VIL
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Villarreal15%
Draw22%
PSG63%
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.01
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.2%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–210.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–36.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession72%
28%Territory61%
26%From set plays13%
0.11Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Villarreal, 1 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.