Champions League · League phase MD4
RB Leipzig
RBL
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig19%
Draw25%
Man City55%
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.68
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
40%Possession59%
43%Territory49%
24%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.13
6.8%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for RB Leipzig, 2 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
RB Leipzig
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.