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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD7

Lille

LIL

Slovan Bratislava

SLO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lille46%
Draw26%
Slovan Bratislava28%

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.26

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.2%
  • 2–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession28%
30%Territory26%
12%From set plays30%
0.14Chance quality0.08
2.9%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Lille, 1 for Slovan Bratislava. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.