Champions League · League phase MD5
Lille
LIL
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille13%
Draw20%
Bayern München68%
Expected goals
0.86 – 2.16
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–211.4%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–37.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
49%Possession56%
25%Territory53%
6%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.15
4.0%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lille, 2 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lille
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.