Champions League · League phase MD5
Lille
LIL
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille12%
Draw19%
Bayern München69%
Expected goals
0.86 – 2.24
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–211.4%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–38.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession66%
30%Territory67%
12%From set plays27%
0.14Chance quality0.10
2.9%Directness2.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Lille, 1 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.