Champions League · League phase MD3
Aston Villa
AVL
Viking
VIK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa48%
Draw26%
Viking27%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.22
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.5%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
36%Possession38%
35%Territory30%
12%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.07
5.9%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Aston Villa, 1 for Viking. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.