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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD2

Aston Villa

AVL

Fenerbahçe

FEN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aston Villa45%
Draw26%
Fenerbahçe29%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.24

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.5%
  • 2–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

36%Possession42%
35%Territory25%
12%From set plays4%
0.15Chance quality0.14
5.9%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Aston Villa, 1 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.