Champions League · League phase MD7
Aston Villa
AVL
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa30%
Draw25%
Dortmund45%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.74
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
36%Possession52%
35%Territory51%
12%From set plays5%
0.15Chance quality0.16
5.9%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Aston Villa, 1 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Dortmund
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.