Champions League · League phase MD7
Aston Villa
AVL
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa33%
Draw26%
Dortmund41%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.55
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
50%Possession54%
48%Territory49%
20%From set plays19%
0.14Chance quality0.13
3.7%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Aston Villa, 2 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.