Champions League · League phase MD6
Aston Villa
AVL
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa19%
Draw21%
PSG60%
Expected goals
1.16 – 2.12
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–36.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
36%Possession72%
35%Territory61%
12%From set plays13%
0.15Chance quality0.13
5.9%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Aston Villa, 1 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.