Champions League · League phase MD6
Aston Villa
AVL
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa25%
Draw24%
PSG51%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.91
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
50%Possession47%
48%Territory35%
20%From set plays3%
0.14Chance quality0.14
3.7%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Aston Villa, 2 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.