Champions League · League phase MD8
Roma
ROM
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Roma43%
Draw27%
Lille30%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.22
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
58%Possession45%
51%Territory30%
17%From set plays12%
0.06Chance quality0.14
2.9%Directness2.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Roma, 1 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.