Champions League · League phase MD2
Roma
ROM
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Roma21%
Draw22%
Real Madrid56%
Expected goals
1.21 – 2.02
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
58%Possession36%
51%Territory39%
17%From set plays3%
0.06Chance quality0.18
2.9%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Roma, 1 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.