Champions League · League phase MD8
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
AEK Athens
AEK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund62%
Draw22%
AEK Athens16%
Expected goals
1.99 – 0.95
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.2%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
54%Possession41%
49%Territory27%
19%From set plays10%
0.13Chance quality0.10
4.4%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Dortmund, 2 for AEK Athens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.