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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD8

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

AEK Athens

AEK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dortmund62%
Draw22%
AEK Athens16%

Expected goals

1.99 – 0.95

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.2%
  • 2–010.5%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 1–110.0%
  • 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

54%Possession41%
49%Territory27%
19%From set plays10%
0.13Chance quality0.10
4.4%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Dortmund, 2 for AEK Athens. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.