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Champions League · League phase MD4

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

Real Betis

BET

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dortmund59%
Draw22%
Real Betis19%

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.12

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 219.9%
  • 119.8%
  • 109.2%
  • 208.8%
  • 316.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

52%Possession55%
51%Territory39%
5%From set plays27%
0.16Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Dortmund, 1 for Real Betis. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.