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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD8

Atlético Madrid

ATM

Fenerbahçe

FEN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Atlético Madrid56%
Draw23%
Fenerbahçe21%

Expected goals

1.89 – 1.11

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.5%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–08.8%
  • 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

55%Possession42%
32%Territory25%
11%From set plays4%
0.10Chance quality0.14
5.0%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Atlético Madrid, 1 for Fenerbahçe. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.