Champions League · League phase MD4
Atlético Madrid
ATM
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético Madrid23%
Draw25%
Bayern München52%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.76
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
52%Possession56%
37%Territory53%
17%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Atlético Madrid, 2 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético Madrid
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.