Champions League · League phase MD4
Atlético Madrid
ATM
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Atlético Madrid21%
Draw23%
Bayern München56%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.93
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession66%
32%Territory67%
11%From set plays27%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.0%Directness2.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Atlético Madrid, 1 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Atlético Madrid
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.