Champions League · League phase MD4
Barcelona
BAR
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barcelona64%
Draw20%
Aston Villa16%
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.06
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
72%Possession36%
50%Territory35%
25%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.15
2.3%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Barcelona, 1 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.