Champions League · League phase MD4
Barcelona
BAR
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barcelona59%
Draw22%
Aston Villa20%
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.16
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
62%Possession50%
41%Territory48%
7%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.14
3.8%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Barcelona, 2 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.