Champions League · League phase MD6
Barcelona
BAR
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barcelona39%
Draw27%
Man City34%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.34
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
62%Possession59%
41%Territory49%
7%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.13
3.8%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Barcelona, 2 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.