Champions League · League phase MD2
Arsenal
ARS
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal83%
Draw12%
Lille5%
Expected goals
2.72 – 0.56
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
41%
Fair handicap
-2.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–014.1%
- 3–012.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 4–08.3%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
58%Possession45%
71%Territory30%
6%From set plays12%
0.16Chance quality0.14
1.3%Directness2.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Arsenal, 1 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.