Champions League · League phase MD5
Arsenal
ARS
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal64%
Draw22%
Dortmund14%
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.80
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
56%Possession54%
54%Territory49%
36%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.13
2.9%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arsenal, 2 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.