Champions League · League phase MD5
Arsenal
ARS
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal71%
Draw18%
Dortmund11%
Expected goals
2.26 – 0.79
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.8%
- 1–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
58%Possession52%
71%Territory51%
6%From set plays5%
0.16Chance quality0.16
1.3%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Arsenal, 1 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Dortmund
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.